Tony Romo Is Skeptical Footballs Gunslinger Of The Year

In the opening week of the 2014 NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys’ Tony Romo threw three interceptions against the San Francisco 49ers, all with his team trailing. The Cowboys lost that game by double digits, but Romo’s performance earned him consideration for this column’s inaugural Gunslinger of the Week award. It surely soothed Romo’s disappointment.The Gunslinger award goes to the quarterback who takes the kinds of risks necessary to maximize his team’s chances to win, even if they’re unpopular with the commentariat and regardless of whether they pay off or not. Generally this means a quarterback who is willing to throw interceptions (or otherwise be very aggressive) when his team is down to improve its chances from dire to just not so great.There has been a lot of great gunslinging in the NFL this year — including from Andrew Luck, the risk-appraising savant who beat out Romo that first week, and Matthew Stafford (who has been establishing himself as an all-time great at big second-half comebacks). But Romo has led the pack.Despite a narrow and disappointing loss to the Green Bay Packers — who almost represented the NFC in a Super Bowl the NFC almost won — few QBs accomplished as much as Romo did this year. Counting the playoffs, he went 13-4 as a starter and led the league in yards per attempt, NFL Passer Rating and ESPN’s QBR. And while the Cowboys had a strong running game, Romo didn’t exactly have it easy. Here are his 17 games, plotted from start to finish (in seconds), with the point margins Romo faced at the beginning of each passing play:1Note that this chart and the charts at the end of the article show the margins a QB faced from the perspective of the passing game, so they won’t look the same as a chart that just tracked a team’s margin. If there were major fluctuations in score over a period when the QB never passed, those swings aren’t included. Also, the axes are based on situations faced, not results (those are represented in the color). So, if a QB threw a game-winning TD in the final second of a game he trailed wire to wire, the line for that game will be blue but will never be positive. Blue lines are games that his team won, and yellow lines are games that it lost (dashed lines are playoffs). Romo faced a point deficit in 13 of the 17 games, and he won nine of those 13. The yellow and blue circles represent the maximum lead Romo held in a loss and the maximum deficit he faced in a win, respectively. I’ve also included these charts for all other quarterbacks who played in eight or more games at the bottom of this article.Teams that trail as often as the Cowboys normally don’t win as much as they did. Since 2001, Romo’s 69 percent win rate in games trailed has only been exceeded twice by teams that trailed in 13 or more games. Those teams: Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in 2009 (who won 10 of 13), and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in 2011 (who won 11 of 15).2The Cowboys’ nine of 13 comeback wins have also been matched three times: by Manning in 2006, Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle Seahawks in 2005, and previously by Romo in 2007.But the 2014 Cowboys have done more than just win when trailing. They’ve won when trailing big.There’s a standard test I often use when I do gunslinging/comeback analysis: How often did a quarterback lead his team to victory when his team was down by two scores? Last season, Romo led the Cowboys to four victories in the six games in which he faced nine-plus point deficits. That 66 percent win rate is the highest for any team since 2001 that has trailed in as many games. Let’s look at this in historical context (the area of bubbles is proportional to number of games trailed by nine or more):Drew Brees leads the pack with his remarkable 2009 season, in which he and the New Orleans Saints won 10 of 11 games they trailed and four of five that they trailed by nine or more. (Of course, we would expect a team that trailed less often to win a higher percentage of those games). The other two with higher win percentages are Manning in 2009 and Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers in 2006, both of whom won three of four.So, you might think Romo has just been a machine when trailing big, right? Nope! He was slinging it. Romo’s interception rate in those situations was the second-highest in the league. Here’s a plot comparing each 2014 QBs’ interception rate when trailing big with how often he won those games:That’s may not look like the best-fitting trend line in history, but it’s pretty amazing that it slopes upward at all. The Gunslinger Hypothesis suggests that, in the long run, taking risks is necessary to maximize wins, even if it may lead to interceptions. But that doesn’t mean we’d expect it to be this easy, in particular because:For any given level of risk-taking, we’d still expect better and more-skilled players to throw fewer interceptions than less-skilled ones.In the short run, interceptions hurt. As I’ve said before, as much as I love INTs, a quarterback should still generally expect to lose the times he throws them; he’s just hoping to make up for those losses by getting more touchdowns/wins when his risks pay off. So, over short periods, we should expect to see a negative relationship between interceptions and winning.This season, of all qualifying quarterbacks, Romo has not only committed to slinging it as much as any quarterback, but his gunslinging has paid immediate dividends. One thing that enabled this is when the Cowboys were up or down by one or fewer scores, Romo’s interception rate was only 0.6 percent — the lowest in the league (yes, even lower than Aaron Rodgers, who posted a 1.2 percent rate in those situations). This is good gunslinging! A QB should take risks when they’re necessary and avoid them when they’re not.3Of course, not even the greatest gunslinger expects to win two-thirds of the time that his team drops behind two scores. Romo has obviously gotten lucky, but not nearly as lucky as he would have to have been if he didn’t gunsling at all. In the season-results charts, an ideal gunslinging profile is one that has constantly upward-trending lines when leading or close to even, and then a shotgun spray when trailing big. Some QBs just spray all the time and may win a disproportionate amount of games trailed as a result (below, see Stafford, who this year won four of eight games trailing big but also lost four games that his team led).For being not only one of the slingingest QBs in the league, but also showing just what slinging can do, Tony Romo is our Gunslinger of the Year.BonusHere are the seasons-in-review charts for the other NFL QBs who played at least eight games (so, every team in the league except the Tennessee Titans is represented).There are so many story lines embedded below that I hardly know where to begin. But here are a few things that stuck out to me:Brady only lost once in any game the Patriots led.Before the Super Bowl, Russell Wilson had also won nine of 13 games the Seahawks trailed.Nick Foles, our Gunslinger of the Quarter-Season, won three of three when the Philadelphia Eagles were trailing by two scores.Ben Roethlisberger faced deficits in 15 of his 17 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers.Unexpectedly (to me), Luck had the same number of big (one) and regular (four) come-from-behind wins as that other perpetual Skeptical Football muse, Rodgers.Enjoy! read more

Elon Musk is flirting with Mars on Twitter and its weird

first_img 2 I want you too baby https://t.co/Lxi0LQz5rc— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 8, 2019 Yes, this exchange has descended into the sort of thing 13-year-olds giggle about. Musk dropped one more flirty message, with what seems to be a reference to a questionable internet challenge that takes place in November. You’ll have to research that one yourself if you really want to know. 😅 thank goodness it’s not November https://t.co/ius8kAptiC— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 9, 2019 So Mars did, tweeting a kissy face emoji with a perspective view of Gale Crater and Mount Sharp culled from the Science Photo Library. NASA’s Curiosity rover is currently exploring the crater. Online Comments Tags Mars seems to be a humorous novelty account, dropping jokes about looking cute in a selfie and getting turned down for a date by Earth. CNET dropped Mars a message to ask about the account’s background. The person behind Mars says, “I’m only a simple university student.” Thought I looked cute in this pic. Might delete later. pic.twitter.com/updeat3OCl— Mars (@4thFromOurStar) February 5, 2019 We already know Elon Musk has a thing for Mars. He’s pushing the under-construction SpaceX Starship as the way to get humans to the Red Planet. It seems like Mars might be crushing right back after a strange and suggestive Twitter exchange Friday.An anonymous Twitter account named Mars (with the handle @4thFromOurStar) tweeted a message saying it wants only Elon to move to Mars, implying no other humans will do. Musk replied to the planet with, “I want you too baby.”center_img 41 weird objects seen on Mars, explained 43 Photos 😘 pic.twitter.com/PvM6Odf19y— Mars (@4thFromOurStar) February 9, 2019 Mars might be waiting a long time for Musk to show up. SpaceX is working on an initial test prototype of Starship and has been firing the Raptor rocket engine designed to take the spaceship into orbit and beyond. It might break Mars’ heart to learn SpaceX plans to go visit the moon first, and even that’s not scheduled until 2023. Here’s hoping the Red Planet isn’t the jealous type. Share your voice Send me hot pics & I’ll be right over 😉 https://t.co/ld2VDbF0Wh— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 9, 2019 Mars asked when Musk was coming over. He dropped a classic, but not classy, internet flirtation line: “Send me hot pics and I’ll be right over.” Elon Musk Space SpaceX Twitter NASA turns 60: The space agency has taken humanity farther than anyone else, and it has plans to go further.Taking It to Extremes: Mix insane situations — erupting volcanoes, nuclear meltdowns, 30-foot waves — with everyday tech. Here’s what happens.last_img read more

3 NGOs barred from Rohingya relief operations

first_imgThe government on Wednesday forbade three NGOs from distributing relief materials among the Rohingyas. Prothom Alo File PhotoThe government on Wednesday forbade three non-government organisations (NGOs) from distributing relief materials among the Rohingyas who have taken shelter in Bangladesh fleeing Myanmar.The three NGOs are Muslim Aid, Islamic Relief and Allama Fazlullah Foundation, officials informed a parliamentary panel on Wednesday.It was alleged at the meeting of the parliamentary standing committee on the foreign ministry that these NGOs were doing ‘something else’ in the name of relief operations.“We went to Cox’s Bazar and came to know that a few NGOs were engaged in doing something else on the plea of distribution of relief materials among the Rohingyas,” committee member Mahjabeen Khaled said to Prothom Alo after the meeting held at the Jatiya Sangsad Bhaban.“We asked all to stop publicise something else in the name of distribution of relief materials,” she added.The ruling party member of parliament also said they have asked the authorities to check the identities of all whoever comes to distribute relief. “All have been asked as well to distribute relief materials through the coordination committee,” Mahjabeen added.Another member of the standing committee said, “Bangladesh has given shelter to the Rohingyas, but we must not show a welcome gesture  to them. Their repatriation is already a tough task.”The MP also insisted that Bangladesh should ask other countries that proposed to build dwellings for the Rohingyas in Bangladesh, to take them to their countries.The parliamentary body recommended vigorous diplomatic efforts to compel Myanmar to take back Rohingyas, said a press release of the paliament secretariat.The meeting was chaired by committee chief Dipu Moni.last_img read more

McCain torpedoes Republican effort to repeal Obamacare

first_imgArizona Senator John McCain says he opposes the latest Republican effort to repeal Obamacare. Photo: AFPUS Senator John McCain Friday announced his opposition to the latest Republican attempt to replace Barack Obama’s signature health care law, likely dooming the repeal effort.It is the second time in two months that he has defied his party and president Donald Trump over efforts to replace the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as “Obamacare,” which has long been in Republicans’ sights.“I cannot in good conscience vote for the Graham-Cassidy proposal,” McCain said of the bill proposed by fellow Republican senators Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy.“I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried,” the senator said in a statement.In July, McCain made a dramatic return to Washington from Arizona after a brain cancer diagnosis to become one of three Republican senators who helped sink their party’s earlier bid to replace Obamacare.Now, rebels within the party ranks appear set to torpedo what may be the party’s last chance to make good on a longstanding Republican goal, and a signature pledge of the president.With both McCain and the conservative Rand Paul opposed, it would take just one more Republican defector to prevent the bill’s passage before a deadline of 30 September, the end of the fiscal year. At least two party moderates-Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski-are known to have serious reservations.The bill’s collapse would be yet another blow to the president and the Republican leadership, who have been unable to move forward on repealing Obamacare despite controlling Congress and the White House.In coming out against the latest bill, McCain criticized the fact that it had bypassed regular Senate order, and noted that it would not be fully reviewed by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) before the end of the month.The senator said he could not “support it without knowing how much it will cost, how it will effect insurance premiums, and how many people will be helped or hurt by it.”Trump targets defectors -The bill’s supporters might be eager to avoid a CBO score. In July, the non-partisan body projected that the ranks of the uninsured would grow by 23 million Americans, and premiums would rise 20 per cent annually, over the next decade if the previous Obamacare repeal bill became law.The White House scrambled earlier this week to win over Republicans skeptical of Graham-Cassidy, with Trump himself phoning lawmakers and state governors seeking to tilt the scales in favor of the bill.And Trump made his position on Republican defectors clear on Friday, writing on Twitter that those who vote against Graham-Cassidy “will forever…. be known as ‘the Republican who saved Obamacare.’”While Republicans have pledged to repeal the Obama-era health care reforms, they have struggled to secure enough support to do so amid fears that proposed alternatives would dramatically increase the number of Americans without health insurance.The American Medical Association has issued scathing criticism of the latest repeal effort, warning it “would result in millions of Americans losing their health insurance coverage, destabilize health insurance markets, and decrease access to affordable coverage and care.”McCain’s rejection of the latest Obamacare replacement bill is yet another slight against the current president, someone he has repeatedly challenged from within the ranks of the Republican Party.Trump, for his part, had mocked McCain’s war hero status as a former prisoner of war in Vietnam as he ran for president, declaring: “I like people who weren’t captured.”last_img read more

Baltimores PRAISE School Strives for Academic Excellence Cultural Awareness in Minority Youth

first_img(Updated October 16, 2014) In 2006, a small group of dedicated educators began meeting on Saturdays with minority middle school-aged boys at Sojourner Douglass College in east Baltimore.This small group was the beginnings of the Paul Robeson Academic International School of Excellence, or PRAISE, a Saturday college-readiness and manhood development program designed for a population often generalized as at-risk without respect to individual behaviors or achievements.Now housed at the Johns Hopkins School of Education, PRAISE was founded by Dr. LaMarr Shields, who was inspired to do so by his work as a reader and pitch man to students of color for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Gates Millennium Scholars program. The Gates program provides full scholarships for the entire length of university study at any school of the recipient’s choosing.“When I saw these smart brown boys from all over the country, from New York, to L.A., to Chicago, we [PRAISE] . . . created a college readiness model, to prepare them for college,” Shields told the AFRO during a recent visit to PRAISE program. “But [PRAISE is] also about manhood—manhood development.”PRAISE works to ensure that its students, consisting entirely of Black and Latino males, are prepared to succeed in college when they graduate high school.“We don’t accept the bare minimum,” said Mary Missouri, director of PRAISE and formerly an assistant principal at St. Francis Academy for 14 years. “There’s no back row here.”Academics are heavily emphasized, but so is developing a strong sense of self within the context of understanding of one’s history.“We want to make sure that these young boys have instilled in them the values, principles that are necessary in order to navigate this world, even in the face of injustice, even in the face of people treating them as less than,” said Missouri. “They need to understand that that’s not what you need to subscribe to and that you need to elevate your own standards.”In order to achieve this, PRAISE infuses its educational development programs with Afro-Caribbean perspectives, imparting not just academic skills, but also a broader cultural and historical awareness that is often lacking in Baltimore area public schools.For Tyrek Wynn, currently a senior at Pikesville High School, it is that sense of self that has meant the most to him.“The biggest impact for me from being in here would probably be getting more in tune with my culture, my past, my people I would say,” said Wynn. “Instead of just going about my business, actually learning about our journey so far through life, the things we’ve experienced.”Kennedy Huddleston, now in his third year as an instructor with PRAISE after 15 years as a science and English teacher at St. Francis Academy, said getting the young men to appreciate that they are part of an intentional journey is central to PRAISE’s mission.“A lot of them don’t even know that they’re walking a path, they think that life is [just] happening, so our job is ‘no, no, no, really you’re actually walking a path,’ consciously or unconsciously,” Huddleston said. “So how you walk that path is either going to make it difficult, or going to make it easy.”Like some other education based programs in Baltimore—LIFTT, or the Youth Resiliency Institute, for example—PRAISE also emphasizes parental involvement. While the only costs for the students is a small initial registration fee, parents are asked to support PRAISE’s work in ways other than financial, by attending eight once-a-month sessions that run for two hours each and are described by Shields as “very intense.”“It’s not just about educating the child,” said Missouri, “we try to educate the family members as well. Give the parents tools in their tool boxes [for] how to help their little Brown and Black boys navigate this society.”ralejandro@afro.comlast_img read more

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Yemen has been gripped by civil war since a failed political transition in 2015, Lagos lawyer Femi Falana and Prof. terminal peaked at close to $108 On Friday it reached $79 a decrease of 27 percentWTI is an industry standard against which the price of oil from other places such as North Dakota’s Bakken Formation is measured Oil prices could recover by the time the Legislature starts meeting in January at which time OMB will provide another forecast Sharp said Moody’s Analytics which provides advice to the OMB advisory committee is looking at oil prices increasing over the next three to four years she saidOMB is assuming oil prices will reach $82 at the end of the next bienniumIf oil prices were to continue to fall the number to watch will be $5509That’s the current “trigger price” in state law said Kathy Strombeck the head analyst at the state tax department If the average oil price stays at that level or below for five months the oil extraction tax rate will drop from 65 percent to 4 percent which would cut revenue furtherHolmberg said most lawmakers will probably take falling oil prices in stride seeing it as just part of a business cycle “Oil is a commodity like corn The price goes up The price goes down” police officers have used tear gas, a spokesman for the group, “The time to criminalize this horrific form of abuse is now, it has been decided to further postpone the re-opening of schools and colleges and holding of examinations," Townsend said. which will take place on Jan.” Israel said at a Feb. They are matched through a program of Adults Adopting Special Kids.

But, his staff and “everyone who counts on me to be an ally and supporter and champion of women, SDP (Sen.7 billion for 3 years, was sitting in a black Cadillac SUV outside a convenience store on Tuesday evening. read more