Tony Romo Is Skeptical Footballs Gunslinger Of The Year

In the opening week of the 2014 NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys’ Tony Romo threw three interceptions against the San Francisco 49ers, all with his team trailing. The Cowboys lost that game by double digits, but Romo’s performance earned him consideration for this column’s inaugural Gunslinger of the Week award. It surely soothed Romo’s disappointment.The Gunslinger award goes to the quarterback who takes the kinds of risks necessary to maximize his team’s chances to win, even if they’re unpopular with the commentariat and regardless of whether they pay off or not. Generally this means a quarterback who is willing to throw interceptions (or otherwise be very aggressive) when his team is down to improve its chances from dire to just not so great.There has been a lot of great gunslinging in the NFL this year — including from Andrew Luck, the risk-appraising savant who beat out Romo that first week, and Matthew Stafford (who has been establishing himself as an all-time great at big second-half comebacks). But Romo has led the pack.Despite a narrow and disappointing loss to the Green Bay Packers — who almost represented the NFC in a Super Bowl the NFC almost won — few QBs accomplished as much as Romo did this year. Counting the playoffs, he went 13-4 as a starter and led the league in yards per attempt, NFL Passer Rating and ESPN’s QBR. And while the Cowboys had a strong running game, Romo didn’t exactly have it easy. Here are his 17 games, plotted from start to finish (in seconds), with the point margins Romo faced at the beginning of each passing play:1Note that this chart and the charts at the end of the article show the margins a QB faced from the perspective of the passing game, so they won’t look the same as a chart that just tracked a team’s margin. If there were major fluctuations in score over a period when the QB never passed, those swings aren’t included. Also, the axes are based on situations faced, not results (those are represented in the color). So, if a QB threw a game-winning TD in the final second of a game he trailed wire to wire, the line for that game will be blue but will never be positive. Blue lines are games that his team won, and yellow lines are games that it lost (dashed lines are playoffs). Romo faced a point deficit in 13 of the 17 games, and he won nine of those 13. The yellow and blue circles represent the maximum lead Romo held in a loss and the maximum deficit he faced in a win, respectively. I’ve also included these charts for all other quarterbacks who played in eight or more games at the bottom of this article.Teams that trail as often as the Cowboys normally don’t win as much as they did. Since 2001, Romo’s 69 percent win rate in games trailed has only been exceeded twice by teams that trailed in 13 or more games. Those teams: Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in 2009 (who won 10 of 13), and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in 2011 (who won 11 of 15).2The Cowboys’ nine of 13 comeback wins have also been matched three times: by Manning in 2006, Matt Hasselbeck and the Seattle Seahawks in 2005, and previously by Romo in 2007.But the 2014 Cowboys have done more than just win when trailing. They’ve won when trailing big.There’s a standard test I often use when I do gunslinging/comeback analysis: How often did a quarterback lead his team to victory when his team was down by two scores? Last season, Romo led the Cowboys to four victories in the six games in which he faced nine-plus point deficits. That 66 percent win rate is the highest for any team since 2001 that has trailed in as many games. Let’s look at this in historical context (the area of bubbles is proportional to number of games trailed by nine or more):Drew Brees leads the pack with his remarkable 2009 season, in which he and the New Orleans Saints won 10 of 11 games they trailed and four of five that they trailed by nine or more. (Of course, we would expect a team that trailed less often to win a higher percentage of those games). The other two with higher win percentages are Manning in 2009 and Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers in 2006, both of whom won three of four.So, you might think Romo has just been a machine when trailing big, right? Nope! He was slinging it. Romo’s interception rate in those situations was the second-highest in the league. Here’s a plot comparing each 2014 QBs’ interception rate when trailing big with how often he won those games:That’s may not look like the best-fitting trend line in history, but it’s pretty amazing that it slopes upward at all. The Gunslinger Hypothesis suggests that, in the long run, taking risks is necessary to maximize wins, even if it may lead to interceptions. But that doesn’t mean we’d expect it to be this easy, in particular because:For any given level of risk-taking, we’d still expect better and more-skilled players to throw fewer interceptions than less-skilled ones.In the short run, interceptions hurt. As I’ve said before, as much as I love INTs, a quarterback should still generally expect to lose the times he throws them; he’s just hoping to make up for those losses by getting more touchdowns/wins when his risks pay off. So, over short periods, we should expect to see a negative relationship between interceptions and winning.This season, of all qualifying quarterbacks, Romo has not only committed to slinging it as much as any quarterback, but his gunslinging has paid immediate dividends. One thing that enabled this is when the Cowboys were up or down by one or fewer scores, Romo’s interception rate was only 0.6 percent — the lowest in the league (yes, even lower than Aaron Rodgers, who posted a 1.2 percent rate in those situations). This is good gunslinging! A QB should take risks when they’re necessary and avoid them when they’re not.3Of course, not even the greatest gunslinger expects to win two-thirds of the time that his team drops behind two scores. Romo has obviously gotten lucky, but not nearly as lucky as he would have to have been if he didn’t gunsling at all. In the season-results charts, an ideal gunslinging profile is one that has constantly upward-trending lines when leading or close to even, and then a shotgun spray when trailing big. Some QBs just spray all the time and may win a disproportionate amount of games trailed as a result (below, see Stafford, who this year won four of eight games trailing big but also lost four games that his team led).For being not only one of the slingingest QBs in the league, but also showing just what slinging can do, Tony Romo is our Gunslinger of the Year.BonusHere are the seasons-in-review charts for the other NFL QBs who played at least eight games (so, every team in the league except the Tennessee Titans is represented).There are so many story lines embedded below that I hardly know where to begin. But here are a few things that stuck out to me:Brady only lost once in any game the Patriots led.Before the Super Bowl, Russell Wilson had also won nine of 13 games the Seahawks trailed.Nick Foles, our Gunslinger of the Quarter-Season, won three of three when the Philadelphia Eagles were trailing by two scores.Ben Roethlisberger faced deficits in 15 of his 17 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers.Unexpectedly (to me), Luck had the same number of big (one) and regular (four) come-from-behind wins as that other perpetual Skeptical Football muse, Rodgers.Enjoy! read more

VIDEO Shawsheen Tech Knocks WHS Boys Basketball Team Out Of Playoffs

first_imgShare this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedVIDEO: Watch WHS vs. Shawsheen Tech Boys Varsity Basketball Game At Shawsheen TechIn “Videos”WCTV News & Notes: Registration Now Open For Popular Weekend Youth ProgramIn “Community”Greg Bendel Announces He’s Stepping Down As Head Coach Of Shawsheen Tech’s Boys Varsity Basketball TeamIn “Education” WILMINGTON, MA — The Shawsheen Tech Boys Varsity Basketball team defeated Wilmington High, 70-56, on Tuesday night in first-round state tournament matchup.Read the Wilmington Town Crier‘s coverage of the game HERE.Watch the full game, courtesy of Wilmington Community Television, below:——Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email wilmingtonapple@gmail.com.last_img read more

Morgan Stanley reduces Flipkarts share value by 27

first_imgMorgan Stanley has reduced the value of Flipkart’s share by 27 percent in a mutual fund managed by it, indicating that global investors now see India’s largest e-commerce firm as overvalued.The reduction means Flipkart’s valuation now stands at $11 billion, which is in contrast to the $15.2-billion valuation claimed by the online retailer recently, The Economic Times reported.At present, Morgan Stanley owns 1-2 percent stake in Flipkart. It had acquired shares in Flipkart in 2013, when the Bengaluru-based e-commerce major raised $360 million.The Morgan Stanley fund had trimmed the valuation of its stake in Flipkart to $58.93 million in December last year from $80.62 million in June 2015, according to a regulatory filing by the fund.Domestic online retailers have come in for severe criticism by industry-watchers and investors for their expensive valuation, as they post massive losses due to high discounts offered to lure customers to online shopping.Flipkart’s losses escalated to Rs 2,000 crore in the fiscal year ending March 2015, up nearly 180 pervent, compared to Rs 715 crore in the previous year, according to the company’s filing to the Registrar of Companies.Morgan Stanley’s move comes at a time when fund-raising has become difficult for e-commerce firms, including Flipkart.After investing billions of dollars in the past two years, venture capitalists (VCs) are now taking a cautious approach on Indian start-ups as their valuations soar and losses escalate.Investment by venture capital firms in the country fell $600 million to $1.51 billion in October-December 2015 against $2.12 billion in the same period in 2014, according to a report by CB Insights and KPMG International.last_img read more

Victims either suffocated or jumped to their deaths

first_imgDirector general of Fire Service and Civil Defense Sazzad Hossain briefs newsmen on Thursday in Banani. Photo: UNBNone of the FR Tower fire victims were burnt to death – they either suffocated inside the building, or died in the act of trying to escape the fire, falling several feet from the upper storeys of the highrise, reports UNB.  Director general of Fire Service and Civil Defense Sazzad Hossain said this at a press briefing around 9:15pm.The DG also said phenyl boards used inside the building, electronics and carpeting allowed the fire to spread quickly.The devastating fire broke out on the ninth floor of the 22-storey FR Tower in Banani on Thursday afternoon, with 19 confirmed deaths so far.last_img read more

What Do Voters Think About Immigration in The Hometowns of Sen Ted

first_img Listen X To embed this piece of audio in your site, please use this code: Sharecenter_img Elizabeth Trovall/Houston Public MediaHarris County Republicans gather at a debate watch party in Houston to watch Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke spar over immigration, other issuesWhen it comes to immigration, we know where Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke stand. Their constituents are another story. At the Republican Party Headquarters in Houston, a crowd shouts, laughs and applauds as they watch the final debate between the candidates.Of the issues discussed, border security strikes a chord with the audience. They cheer on Cruz after he says he’s gained the formal endorsement of the National Border Patrol Council.Sonny Khatua is watching. He says he supports Senator Cruz and President Trump, and believes people should come to the United States legally.“My family, my parents, we waited 20 years to become American citizens,” Khatua says.“So if the Dreamers want to come, they can get in line. They can do the legal thing. They can do the right thing,” he says. Photo: Michael Hagerty | Houston Public MediaKhatua wants the U.S. to be tough on illegal immigration.“We need to remove, deport violent, illegal criminals,” he says. “And also a huge amount of funding needs to go to keep building the wall. That’s very, very important. Especially to us legal immigrants.”About 10 miles southeast, security officer Edward Lawrence stands outside the Bank of America Center, in downtown Houston.Lawrence says of course he’ll be voting in the midterms – for Congressman Beto O’Rourke.Alvaro ‘Al’ Ortiz/Houston Public MediaElection signs at an early voting location at Spring First Church, in Spring –a suburb north of Houston– on October 28, 2018.As for immigration, Lawrence says, “it’s not fair for somebody to be deported back to Mexico just because they don’t have a green card. I mean, unfortunately, I know that’s the law here in the U.S.”He also believes in better border security. But “security is one thing,” he says. “But this wall? Uh uh. Nah. Too much to do.”Around the corner, in a cafeteria underground, Houstonians share opinions as diverse as the city.An older white man says immigrants ought to assimilate and learn English. An IT worker from India says the legal immigration system needs to be more efficient. And a Latina paralegal says she’s for Dreamers and against family separation, but may not get around to voting.And that’s just in Houston. So what do folks think on the other side of the state?Mallory Falk/KRWGA mural outside Gussie’s bakery in El Paso, Texas.Gussie’s Tamales and Bakery, in Central El Paso, is just a few miles away from the U.S.-Mexico border. The glass cases here are filled with Mexican pastries – and, for the holiday season, iced with shapes like pumpkins and bats.Paola Silva rings up customers behind the counter. This may be Beto O’Rourke’s hometown, but she says she’s not really following the midterm elections, “cause of work and everything.”But she is concerned about one issue in particular: Dreamers.“I think it’s really important for those people to keep studying and working because we’re all the same, honestly,” she says.That’s a common sentiment, in this border community.Hector Mata is buying tamales at Gussie’s. He came to the U.S. from Mexico and eventually gained citizenship. Now, he says, he feels a great sense of responsibility to use his vote to demand change.Mata says there should be more opportunities for people without documents, so they can get decent jobs and take care of their families. He says pushing for this change is the least he can do after the support he received when he first arrived in the country.A few miles away, at the El Paso County Courthouse, Rebekah Patnode just cast her ballot.“I couldn’t wait to get out and vote immediately for Beto O’Rourke because I might get hit by a bus tomorrow and I needed to cast my vote while I could,” she says.Patnode grew up in New England and lived all over the country before setting down roots in El Paso.“It’s the safest place that I’ve ever lived,” she says. “But I kind of want to unpack that and I resent the idea that we have to defend our community as being safe just because it is a predominantly brown community.”In the second Senate debate, Ted Cruz said El Paso is safe because of the border wall.“El Paso is right across from Juarez, one of the most dangerous cities in the world,” he said. “Three thousand murders last year. There’s a wall there. That wall is one of the tools you use to protect us.”Patnode’s voting buddy Arianne Rodriguez see things differently.“I come from immigrants,” she says. “I’m first-generation on my dad’s side. We don’t need a wall. We don’t have an abnormal amount of violence.”She wishes the rest of the state understood that.From the El Paso borderlands that Beto O’Rourke calls home to the international port of Houston where Ted Cruz lives, voters are thinking about immigration. Next week, we’ll find out which Senate candidate Texans decide best represents their vision. 00:00 /04:38last_img read more

Family and Friends Day

first_imgThe Senoje Collection and Consortium will hold a Friends and Family Day, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., Aug. 9, in the Mansion at the National Great Blacks in Wax Museum, 1601-1603 E. North Avenue in Baltimore. Families and friends are invited to share in artistic demonstrations, musical performances, arts and crafts, refreshments and the presentation of awards. Admission is free. At 1 p.m., Senoje will present to Dr. Joanne M. Martin, president and CEO of the National Great Blacks in Wax Museum and Richard Byrd, computer consultant, awards for creativity and technical competency respectively.The Senoje Collection and Consortium is a nonprofit organization developed in 1989 to assist independent artists with promoting their work and talents. James E. Jones, painter and print maker is the founder and CEO of the Senoje Collection and Consortium. For more information call 410-448-2988.last_img read more